There are times when the market actually tells you to stop looking at it. There is something that I have noticed over the past month, and the thought came to me while talking with my better half. These days there seems to be a dearth of investing gurus on YouTube. Earlier, a scroll through YouTube would inevitably show a couple of investing gurus who were trending. Not anymore.

My first thought was that maybe those gurus had sold their courses, methodologies etc., made their packet, and quietly left YouTube. So, I went back to check. And they are still there. What has changed though is that while their earlier videos used to get hundreds of thousands of views, now they get tens of thousands, even though the subscriber counts are still in the hundreds of thousands.

People seem to have lost interest in stock investing. At least in India. Evidently, almost two years of the market going nowhere can do that. And we had another “market going nowhere” month in May. The Nifty remained around 24,000 for almost the entire month. Quite far from the highs and the momentum of September 2024. As I have written in this series before, there were months when the market seemed to have broken upward through the 22K to 26K range, but that optimism lasted for a day or two before it settled comfortably back into the range.

No one is making any money, and it shows in the YouTube algorithms.

The update –

In a market like this, it is very optimistic to expect a dramatic recovery in your portfolio. But our three stalwarts are nothing if not disciplined. For them, long term means long term, and a year or two of no returns is not going to deter them from their path.

The three invested their planned INR 22K in their chosen strategies. Their hope: the portfolios will at least keep pace with the market. Let’s take a look.

Indu’s portfolio (The index fan) –

Mutual Fund Scheme	Existing Units	New Investment	NAV	New Units	Total Units	Value
ICICI Pru Nifty 100 ETF	14756.699	22000	27.73	793.365	15550.063	431203.26

Invested Amount	428000
Current Value	431203.3

Muthu’s portfolio (the mutual funds sahi hai guy) –

Sr No	Mutual Fund Scheme	Existing Units	New Investment	NAV	New Units	Total Units	Value
1	ICICI Large and Mid Cap fund	83.705	4400	1006.54	4.371	88.076	88651.98
2	HDFC Mid-cap Opprtunities fund	434.294	4400	201.95	21.788	456.081	92105.62
3	Parag Parikh Flexi Cap fund	986.636	4400	83.04	52.987	1039.622	86330.24
4	Nippon India Multi Cap fund	286.357	4400	299.83	14.675	301.031	90258.27
5	HDFC Small Cap fund	617.589	4400	134.13	32.804	650.393	87237.18

Invested Amount	428000
Current Value	444583.3

Shekhar’s Portfolio (the stock picker) –

Stock	Existing Shares	New Investment	Buy Price	New Shares	Total Shares	Value
Aarti Industries	19.53	440.00	500.75	0.88	20.41	10221.64
Aarti Pharma	11.29	440.00	655.25	0.67	11.96	7838.06
Asian Paints	3.42	440.00	2671.9	0.16	3.58	9574.871
Astral	5.61	440.00	1598.6	0.28	5.88	9400.342
Axis Bank	7.25	440.00	1304.1	0.34	7.59	9893.786
Bajaj Finance	9.27	440.00	931.15	0.47	9.74	9072.665
Bajaj Finserv	4.28	440.00	1809.1	0.24	4.53	8186.256
Bajaj Housing Finance	61.75	0.00	86.02	0.00	61.75	5312.113
Britannia	1.49	440.00	5335.5	0.08	1.57	8398.369
Chola Investment	5.53	440.00	1579.2	0.28	5.80	9167.111
Dabur	16.40	440.00	445.45	0.99	17.39	7745.764
Deepak Nitrite	3.50	0.00	1714.8	0.00	3.50	5996.354
Devyani International	42.07	0.00	117.16	0.00	42.07	4929.374
Divis Labs	1.33	440.00	6797.5	0.06	1.40	9496.964
DMART Avenue Supermart	2.06	440.00	4124.4	0.11	2.17	8948.063
Eicher	1.37	440.00	7419	0.06	1.43	10579.67
Garware Technical	8.86	0.00	649.55	0.00	8.86	5752.112
Havells	5.59	440.00	1211	0.36	5.95	7204.31
HCL Tech	5.29	440.00	1165.2	0.38	5.66	6598.601
HDFC Bank	9.14	440.00	758.65	0.58	9.72	7373.127
HUL	3.47	440.00	2198.4	0.20	3.68	8079.178
ICICI Bank	6.17	440.00	1272.79	0.35	6.52	8295.728
Indian Hotels	11.14	440.00	667.7	0.66	11.79	7875.505
Infosys	5.27	440.00	1159.9	0.38	5.65	6548.369
Jio Finance	30.86	440.00	242.89	1.81	32.67	7935.112
Kotak Mahindra Bank	20.18	440.00	388.7	1.13	21.31	8283.86
L&T Technologies	1.49	0.00	3491.6	0.00	1.49	5196.476
LTI Mindtree	1.56	440.00	3988.6	0.11	1.67	6671.457
Mankind Pharma	3.42	440.00	2420.4	0.18	3.60	8722.816
Manyavar Vedant Fashions	8.75	0.00	416.1	0.00	8.75	3639.133
Metro Shoes	7.26	440.00	1052.4	0.42	7.67	8076.915
Muthoot Finance	3.10	533.02	3306.9	0.16	3.26	10786.46
Naukri Info Edge	6.11	440.00	1005.65	0.44	6.55	6587.231
Nestle	6.91	440.00	1427.5	0.31	7.22	10306.1
Nykaa	39.59	440.00	263.15	1.67	41.26	10857.49
Page Industries	0.16	0.00	38145	0.00	0.16	6063.077
PayTM	8.43	440.00	1128.2	0.39	8.82	9955.892
Pidilite	5.64	440.00	1480.7	0.30	5.93	8786.931
Reliance	6.03	440.00	1350.5	0.33	6.36	8585.819
SRF	2.96	440.00	2736.8	0.16	3.12	8531.719
Tata Consumer	7.54	440.00	1204.6	0.37	7.90	9521.628
Tata Elxsi	1.48	440.00	4331.2	0.10	1.58	6852.212
Tata Commecial	7.40	440.00	383.85	1.15	8.55	3280.49
Tata Motors	13.94	440.00	400.95	1.10	15.04	6029.812
TCS	2.58	440.00	2284.2	0.19	2.78	6339.744
Titan	2.26	440.00	4137.9	0.11	2.36	9772.688
Torrent Pharma	2.32	440.00	4537.8	0.10	2.42	10961.89
Trent	1.70	440.00	4248.6	0.10	1.80	7658.084
Tube Investments	2.82	440.00	3210.5	0.14	2.96	9489.679
Varun Beverages	16.71	448.35	534.5	0.84	17.55	9377.898
Zomato	32.73	440.00	256.51	1.72	34.45	8835.521
Kwality Walls	2.54	0.00	26.33	0	2.54	66.8782

*This month we had dividends coming in from Muthoot and Varun Beverages. We are assuming a reinvestment of the dividends in the same stocks.

Invested Amount	428000
Current Value	409661.4

For both Indu and Shekhar, the portfolio has largely kept pace with the market. It is more or less where it was. In the case of Indu, she is now marginally above the invested amount. And for Shekhar, it has essentially meant that he hasn’t lost much money despite the prolonged stagnation. After following a disciplined investment approach for almost a year and a half, this is not where he would have wanted to be. But as I said earlier, long term for all of them truly means long term.

Muthu’s mutual funds, however, seem to be doing remarkably well. The gap between him and Indu was created during last month’s recovery, and it appears that the funds have recovered a bit more strongly. Let’s take a look at their portfolios over time.

The comparison and the graph –

Month	Indu	Muthu	Shekhar	Investment
Jan-25	100000	100000	100000	100000
Feb-25	117247.7	115538.4	116557.2	120000
Mar-25	142363.5	140184.6	138494.2	140000
Apr-25	165366.2	162416	163500.4	160000
May-25	192137	191789.2	189153.7	180000
Jun-25	217175.4	217913.8	213291.5	200000
Jul-25	232075.9	236487.7	229127.7	220000
Aug-25	251337.4	255466.6	249919.1	240000
Sep-25	270980.7	275483.7	266187.4	260000
Oct-25	304457.6	304522.5	295892	280000
Nov-25	325694	325651.9	313676.1	300000
Dec-25	344596.2	341517.5	332826.2	320000
Jan-26	351311.2	347628.1	335923.3	340000
Feb-26	378748.3	378656.9	355547.2	362000
Mar-26	364801.9	369107.5	341042.7	384000
Apr-26	408022.7	416609.5	387260.3	406000
May-26	431203.3	444583.3	409661.4	428000

During these sixteen months, there have been phases when all three participants were fairly happy with the progress of their portfolios. However, as you can see from the chart, the last few months have created considerable jitters in that progress. A significant part of this uncertainty can be attributed to the Iran war and the subsequent impact on oil prices. Even today, the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Interestingly, even though the market may react very positively to any news related to easing tensions around Hormuz, some of the damage to the oil infrastructure could take months, if not years, to repair.

These are uncertain times. And when uncertainty looms, discipline is the way out.

The market may or may not reward conviction quickly. But it punishes impatience almost immediately.

Disclaimer: I hold all the stocks and mutual funds mentioned on this page in my personal portfolio.